Despite experiencing a setback in 2022 with a roughly 20% decline, partly due to weak market performance, the Polish asset management sector has historically grown at an 8% annual rate over the past four years. We anticipate this growth rate to accelerate for several reasons.
Firstly, the expected partial convergence of Poland's AUM/GDP (Gross domestic product) ratio towards the European average over the next 10-15 years is a key driver. This is supported by Poland's increasingly developed and robust financial sector.
Secondly, the country's strong economic outlook plays a crucial role. We project nominal GDP to grow at around 6% annually until 2030, which should positively impact asset growth given the existing correlation between the two factors.
Outlook to 2030
Our analysis forecasts an impressive 12.4% annual growth in total assets until 2030. This can be broken down into two components:
approximately 5.2% organic growth from asset performance, reflecting the current asset allocation in Polish portfolios, and
about 7.2% growth attributed to the convergence factor and increased financialization of the Polish economy.
Conclusion
Given these projections, we anticipate that the Polish asset management market could partially catch up with the European average in terms of total assets/AUM within the next 10-15 years.
This convergence represents a significant opportunity for both domestic and international investors looking to capitalize on Poland's maturing financial landscape. We would see some upside to our forecasts in case the historically low savings ratio picks up strongly over the coming years. Such a scenario is not totally unlikely given the overall strong catch-up performance in the real economy.
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This document constitutes neither investment advice, an offer or a recommendation nor an invitation to execute a transaction. Past performance is no reliable indicator of future results. The information presented does not constitute binding tax, financial or legal advice.
This document is based on the knowledge the persons preparing the document have obtained up to the date of creation. Errors and misprints excepted.
As of October 2024