This significant disparity points to substantial growth potential for the Slovenian market, and over the past four years, we've already seen an impressive 17% compound annual growth rate in assets under management.
Given the current low penetration rate of asset managers, we expect this robust growth to continue. Our forecasts suggest a partial convergence towards the European average over the next 10-15 years, driven by the increasing financialization of the Slovenian economy and growing investor sophistication.
The Slovenian economy itself is poised for steady expansion, with nominal GDP expected to grow at an annual rate of 4-5% until 2030. Historically, we've observed a strong correlation between asset growth and GDP growth, a trend we expect to continue, albeit with some moderation as the market matures.
Outlook to 2030
Looking ahead to 2030, we forecast an annual growth rate of approximately 15.1% for the Slovene asset management market. This growth can be attributed to two main factors:
organic growth coming from asset appreciation of about 5.8% annually,
and a more substantial 9.3% growth due to the aforementioned convergence factor.
If these projections hold, the Slovenian asset management market is set for significant expansion in the coming years.
However, it's important to note that full convergence with the European average will likely extend beyond 2030, given the substantial gap that currently exists. Nonetheless, the trajectory is decidedly positive, and we anticipate Slovenia's asset management industry to play an increasingly important role in the country's financial landscape. The historically solid savings rate in Slovenia offers a strong basis for the local asset management industry.
As of October 2024
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