This growth, while fairly low, is not entirely unsurprising in a developed market such as Austria, with total assets to GDP (Gross domestic product) at approximately 40%, which, while below the European average of 80%, is actually quite close to the median which doesn’t get distorted by outliers like Luxembourg.
Outlook until 2030
Looking ahead to 2030, we're assuming annual nominal GDP growth of around 3%. Given the strong correlation between asset growth and GDP expansion, this economic backdrop should provide a solid foundation for continued growth in the asset management sector.
Our analysis suggests that the annual growth rate for Austrian assets under management until 2030 will likely settle at around 5.2%. This can be broken down into two components:
approximately 3.8% organic growth driven by asset performance, reflecting the current asset allocation in Austrian portfolios,
and about 1.4% growth from new inflows.
It's worth noting that while the Austrian savings rate is slightly above the European average, there are indications that this might decrease marginally in the coming years. Though the impact is expected to be minimal, it could exert a slight downward pressure on asset growth in the short term.
In conclusion, while it may not be a market with explosive growth, the outlook for Austria's asset management landscape remains positive. With projected 5.2% annual growth, we're poised to see total assets under management expand significantly by 2030, further solidifying Austria's position in the European financial landscape.
Austrian investors have been extremely conservative over the past ten years, keeping the bulk of their assets in bank deposits. If capital market investments were to be incentivized and/or investors' behavior were to become slightly more capital market-oriented, the growth rates predicted here could be slightly higher.
As of october 2024
This document has been produced by Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Vienna/Austria
Supervisory Authorities: Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA), Austrian National Bank, European Central Bank within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM).
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