Discussion on food trends as an opportunity for sustainable development

Ms Rützler, you recently released the tenth Foodreport, and have been involved with the topic of nutrition and food production for decades. In your view, what have been the most decisive developments in this sector since the first report? What has changed?

Hanni Rützler: What immediately catches the eye is that a highly industrialised food system based on the division of labour has developed. This is a system that is, on the one hand, highly efficient and, at the same time, extremely fragile – highly productive, yet very breakable, extremely unimaginative and focused, while at the same time highly innovative. A lot depends on how one looks at this system.

And how do you look at this system?

Hanni Rützler: As a trend researcher who is searching for answers to the current problems, hopes, and desires, I first look at solutions. This does not mean that I overlook the problems, but I am searching for the right approach to solve them. And in this regard, we have made some progress – the focus is on sustainability, health, and the resilience or future-fitness of the global nutrition system. A lot is happening in these areas, but the topic of meat is currently at the centre of attention – as a liability for health and the environment. In the past, there were many more areas in the Alpine region where crops were grown. Today, the focus is almost exclusively on livestock farming. The variety of plant-based foods is therefore traditionally lacking. We need a stronger focus on plant-based alternatives, also because we see that many farmers can barely survive in the current agricultural landscape. We have overproduction on the one hand, and food waste and shortages on the other.

Eating habits have also changed a great deal. Having meat every day used to be unthinkable.

Hanni Rützler: Yes, this was made possible by the industrialisation of agriculture, new breeding methods, the import of fodder, and the primary focus on efficiency. We are slowly becoming aware of the drawbacks of this one-sided orientation: Climate change and the loss of worldwide biodiversity are the consequences. At present, we are only making use of five animal species and 12 plant species to feed the world. This narrow-minded approach makes our entire system extremely vulnerable. It is neither sustainable nor resilient; the system is now revealing many breaking points. We must learn to concentrate less on short-term yields, and need to approach the topic more systematically. We will need all key players: the agricultural industry, processing, trade, and the consumers; then we can succeed in dealing with issues such as soil quality, seeds, food waste, transparency, and alternative meat products.

What important trends can you identify with regard to food culture?

Hanni Rützler: In my work as a food trend researcher, I see seven thematic clusters which can help to describe the changes. A great deal is happening in the clusters of sustainability and “glocal” (a portmanteau blending global and local). There are currently many small trends, which is always a sign that people are searching for something, but the big catch is still out there somewhere. Questions concerning regionality and globalisation are being asked from entirely new perspectives. Where does globalisation make sense? And where doesn’t it? I defined a trend in this connection last year called “local exotics”. This trend originates with innovative farmers who embark on a search for new starting products that are not at all traditional, but show great future potential due to climate change, droughts, and torrential rain. This is an exciting trend that is only beginning, but is now developing very rapidly. It ranges from ginger, wasabi, artichokes, and peanuts to indoor shrimps and aquaponics, which is now very widely practised in Switzerland.

Mr Robin, you represent a food company. Are we not moving in the wrong direction by thinking about alternatives to consumer goods that we actually eat too much of? Do we really need this amount of meat every day? Or of meat substitutes, perhaps, in future?

Matthew Robin: I believe that a step backwards towards simpler food, maybe even less variety, would be a better option. We have far less brand variety in Switzerland than in Germany or Austria. I personally feel that is a good thing. It is easier when one doesn’t have to choose between a myriad of brands that hardly differ from each other. With regard to the globalisation mentioned by Ms Rützler, we in Switzerland almost live in a kind of ideal world, because we are affected much less by it. Our borders are closed, and this creates a large barrier for the import of meat and dairy products. Although we do have mass animal production, it is not to the same extent as we see in other countries. Farmers earn enough from direct payments to survive. I personally believe that this system works. It makes food more expensive, but we are protected in a way, and I think that allows us to operate a circular economy.

What does that look like in practice?

Matthew Robin: Our milk and cheese producers work together closely with the meat producers. This means that the whey that we produce is used to feed and fatten calves. Where possible, we utilise the biomass from farms to supply energy. It is important to us to pay attention to the entire value chain and to move towards a closed-loop economy. Given the high costs in Switzerland, this is also worthwhile, and I am convinced that it will be the future of the food industry. For us, sustainability is closely connected to product efficiency. Our whole system is being distorted by energy prices that are too low, and we now see the extent of this with the war in Ukraine. We have been living in a dream world with excessively low energy prices, which do not reflect the reality of our society.

Well, the strong demand for meat cannot just be wished away. And retailers are required to react to it. So how do you do it?

Matthew Robin: We are presently not yet at the stage where we absolutely have to offer cultured meat. Yet we see that this is a global trend, and we are convinced that this technology will prevail and thus cover the worldwide demand for meat and protein. We will also increasingly be under pressure to provide even more sustainable products in Switzerland, and Migros’s philosophy is to let our customers choose. We are a very big producer of meat, and it is highly relevant from a strategic point of view that we position ourselves such that we can influence the entire meat production in Europe and around the world with regard to trends.

Ms Gaupp, you work together with experts from the field of economics, the agricultural sector, health care, and the food industry to discover ways to achieve a healthy and sustainable food system. What does such a system look like in your view?

Franziska Gaupp: We are concentrating on three aspects in our work: on a healthy diet, on the reduction of environmental damage and the achievement of the climate targets, and on social justice. At the moment, there is simply no way around the fact that our food system has a very wide range of negative consequences for the environment and our health. The system as a whole – from production to consumption – is responsible for a third of global greenhouse gases. The agricultural system uses 40 per cent of the ice-free land surface, and is the sector with the most freshwater usage in the world – a large part of this can be attributed to livestock farming and meat consumption. Some 80 per cent of agricultural land is utilised to cultivate fodder and farm with livestock; this leads to deforestation in many parts of the world – and consequently to a loss of biodiversity and to increased emissions. Besides this, our food system is often very unhealthy. More than three billion people suffer from obesity – and the number is rising. And we know that this is also connected to the consumption of meat, and that we eat too much red meat, which can subsequently lead to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

So you focus on plant-based alternatives?

Franziska Gaupp: Yes. With regard to your previous question regarding whether it is even necessary to develop new products: From our strictly scientific perspective, I can only answer that with a “no”. Because in most regions, the much-discussed protein gap is not present at the moment. At least here in Europe, we can meet our protein requirements. This means that we can and should switch to a more plant-based diet. Yet I understand, of course, that the industry is interested in developing new products when there is an increasing global demand for it.

Are these products significantly more sustainable?

Franziska Gaupp: On the whole, these new products definitely have a smaller ecological footprint than meat: They consume less water, require less land surface area, and cause lower greenhouse gas emissions. However, lab meat generally requires more energy than regular livestock farming, because biological functions such as digestion are replaced by industrial processes. And if one looks at the social component, then there is a fear that this new market with these new technologies will, of course, be dominated by large corporations and investors who have the necessary capital to invest in research and development. Small businesses and farmers could be pushed out of the market or would at least be at a disadvantage. And just one more point about health: Even if the macronutrients and micronutrients in these products can be adapted and maximised to benefit our health, there are studies on existing products that show that there is often too much salt or fat in, for instance, veggie burgers, and that these products are therefore not really healthier than normal meat.

The food industry is also on investors’ radar. What innovations are investors currently putting their money into in this industry?

Günther Schmitt: As an investor, one is always looking for investment opportunities that increase in value. And this usually happens when the underlying business model works and the environment it is based in is growing. At the moment, it is definitely the case that two segments are booming, one of them being replacement products for milk and meat: This segment is experiencing growth in both revenue and profits. The growth in revenue that is currently taking place can only be dreamt of by traditional food groups such as Nestlé. Companies such as Oatly, which produces oat milk, increase their revenue quite significantly from one year to the next. And this is something that investors see, of course, and then gladly jump on the bandwagon. Because companies that succeed in increasing their revenue so quickly will also achieve high profits at some point in the future. That does not need to be this year or even next year, but sooner or later it will definitely happen and then one wants to be present as an investor. But it has to be noted that there are still few listed companies in this segment. And once they are listed, these small companies are often acquired by large corporations that, of course, also want to be successful in this sector.

Which other sectors are of interest to investors?

Günther Schmitt: A second major segment from an investor’s perspective is the food supplement industry. This is all about additional vitamins, colour and flavour additives, and other additives. These companies also have very high growth rates with regard to revenue but also in terms of profits. Last, but not least, I would like to mention the topic of smart farming. This is about more than the fact that companies like John Deere are bringing self-driving tractors onto the market. It also includes the intelligent implementation of irrigation systems and fertilising systems only in cases where irrigation and fertiliser are really necessary. This saves water and chemicals and delivers great savings, while also contributing towards sustainability.

Food is also a highly politicised topic. What role do – or should – politicians play?

Matthew Robin: Politicians need to create the framework conditions and promote sustainability in food systems in this way. Industry and business will always utilise mechanisms that are to their advantage. That is how the economy works. You have competitors and also have to offer products that are not sustainable, otherwise you’ll no longer exist on the market pretty soon. Politicians have a big responsibility and need to communicate with the industry. But the solutions that are required here must be coordinated throughout Europe. Although I am a proponent of the free market economy, there are limits if we really want to change entire systems. That requires legal regulation, and everyone needs to act in concert.

Franziska Gaupp: It is very interesting for me to hear from industry that they need more government involvement. We hear that quite often when we speak to representatives from industry. “Yes, we want to change, but we can’t, because the framework conditions don’t allow us to...” With regard to our own work, we try to find ways to internalise the damages to the environment and health that the food system causes, and incorporate it into the prices. We also put forward specific political measures. For instance, one could decrease or entirely do away with VAT on vegetables, fruit, legumes, and all healthy food so that low-income households can also afford healthy food, which is often not the case, unfortunately. On the other hand, prices could also be calculated based on products’ environmental impact in future, instead of basing this on production costs. This means that we suggest imposing a nitrogen surplus tax. Agricultural enterprises that overfertilise their crops, and thus pollute the water and the air, would therefore have to pay a tax in future. An animal welfare tax, so in other words an additional cost for meat, would also make a lot of sense in our view. There are also efforts on the part of the EU to promote biodiversity. In this context, certain unused areas and strips of fallow land were reserved for biodiversity. However, these biodiversity strips were released again in one rushed political move to help compensate for, for instance, the lack of grain deliveries from Ukraine, even though a far greater land surface area could be freed up by reducing livestock farming and the fodder requirements associated with it. In this way, long-term goals are being sacrificed for short-term necessities. We naturally view this with a great deal of criticism.

Is there enough political initiative, Ms Rützler?

Hanni Rützler: I was in California this year – in Fresno County. That is the largest agricultural area in the USA, with massive water problems. I met beef and milk producers there. I found out – by way of a side remark – that their dairy cattle only live to three and a half years on average. Because after that they are no longer efficient, so they are processed into sausages and burger patties. And, I must say, I was shocked. Especially because I know how fantastic beef from older cattle can taste. So it occurred to me that the price of beef on the market currently has little to do with quality, but instead depends a lot on the structural orientation of the businesses. There are dynamics in motion that are leading us to really reach the limits of functioning ecosystems, also with regard to the soil, as already mentioned. Heavy downpours, climate change, and so forth are all putting us under extreme pressure to quickly make the whole system more sustainable. We need regional concepts which offer farmers a vision for the future and take away their fears that they will soon not be able to sell their produce unless it is at rock-bottom prices. I personally would wish for regions to develop their own culinary profiles and visions for the future. Maybe there will be a possibility to invest in regions in future, and for the topic of a circular economy to play a more important role on the stock exchange, as well.

How sustainable is the food industry from an investor’s perspective? What are the deciding criteria for investing?

Günther Schmitt: As sustainable investors, we also try to communicate with the companies in which we want to invest. That is our duty. If our sustainability criteria are not met, then we cannot invest in the particular company. We also tell them this directly. This creates a lot of pressure on the one hand, of course, because it has a negative impact on their share price and refinancing options. This is especially true when we are not the only ones who do so, but many other investors do as well. Then the company has to act and make changes. We are in permanent dialogue with most of the companies we invest in.

Would the companies rather be less sustainable?

Günther Schmitt: No, I don’t get that impression. There is a lot of pressure from investors, and it is bearing fruit. We have an engagement database where we record our discussions with companies, so we can also evaluate what results this has led to over the years. By that I don’t mean to say that we alone made the deciding contribution for change to occur, but that if we complained about the same issues as ten other investors, then the company would ultimately respond. So the dialogue between investors and companies can also lead to great results.

Let’s have one final round... What points would you still like to add?

Hanni Rützler: The current crises have shown us that food is something very fundamental. It gives us sustenance and structure, and I have the impression that the coronavirus pandemic heightened our sense of what is important and what isn’t. Food also has a big social component. That is why I believe this topic is very central, not only for the future, but also for the identity and stability of societies. And that brings us back to the appreciation of food. We don’t always need to have everything all year round. But we want to be able to enjoy what we do have with a clear conscience. We also want the producers to be able to make a living from it. I believe that if we provide more information on food and groceries, that if we talk about it more and also try to give cooking a higher place in society again as an important cultural technique, then we will also learn how to manage our resources better. It will also help us with other problems such as obesity, high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and so on. I believe that we have passed the zenith. We can be satisfied with a little bit less, but it should be of a better quality – and sustainable.

Matthew Robin: I agree. The zenith is now behind us. We are receiving more and more enquiries from our customers who would like to know, for instance, why we sell strawberries from South Africa in winter. There is lots of active debate. I personally feel that is fantastic. And it is good to know that the younger generation, in particular, is very critical. They would rather share things than own them. I think this trend is very promising and positive. It makes me optimistic.

Franziska Gaupp: From a research perspective, the topic of food waste is also extremely interesting. We work a lot with global future-oriented scenarios. Reducing food waste always plays a highly important role in this and is a core research topic. Unfortunately, though, there currently isn’t enough available information or political strategies aimed at reducing this waste. But various projects are under way – in research as well as at the political level – to try to gather more data so that we can see where exactly the food is being wasted. About a third of food waste occurs between production and consumption. If all food waste were a country, then that country would be the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. If you look at it like that, it becomes clear just how big the problem really is.